Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
